2026 VMA Nominations: My Predictions Before They Drop
MTV hasn't dropped the 2026 VMA nominations yet, so here's my own tier-by-tier ranking of who deserves a nod this year — locks, wildcards, and the snubs I'm bracing for.
Ethan 5 min read
Who's actually getting nominated this year?
My VMA 2026 tier list
S Tier
- Bad Bunny – DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS
- Kendrick Lamar & SZA – "luther"
- Doechii
A Tier
- Taylor Swift
- KATSEYE
- Sombr
- Olivia Rodrigo
- Charli XCX
- Alex Warren – "FEVER DREAM"
B Tier
- PinkPantheress
- Zara Larsson
- Olivia Dean – "Man I Need"
- Ella Langley – "Be Her"
- Bella Kay – "iloveitiloveitiloveit"
Snub Watch
- Drake – "Janice STFU"
- Cardi B
- BTS – "Swim"
- Justin Bieber
S-tier: I'd bet on these without blinking
Bad Bunny had one of the biggest global rollouts of the year with DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS, and between the streaming numbers and the cultural conversation around it, it's hard to imagine MTV leaving him off the list. Same story for Kendrick Lamar & SZA — "luther" has been inescapable, and pairing two of the most respected names in the game on one track basically guarantees a nod. I'd also put Doechii in this tier; she's been on an absolute run and the kind of artist voters love to reward right now.
A-tier: strong contenders, feels right
This is where it gets fun for me. Taylor Swift is Taylor Swift — even a smaller single tends to pull a nomination just from sheer cultural weight. KATSEYE and Sombr both had the kind of breakout year that VMA voters typically love to spotlight, especially in the newer artist categories. Olivia Rodrigo and Charli XCX both stayed in the conversation all year, and Alex Warren's "FEVER DREAM" has the kind of streaming staying power that usually translates into recognition.
B-tier: hopeful, not fully convinced
This is my "please, MTV" tier. HUNTR/X's "Golden" rode an enormous wave this year thanks to its tie-in with Netflix's animated hit KPop Demon Hunters, and honestly if it doesn't get at least one nomination I'll be a little shocked. PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson, Olivia Dean, and Ella Langley all had genuinely strong years, but the VMAs can be unpredictable about which lanes get attention, so I'm cautiously optimistic rather than confident. Bella Kay's "iloveitiloveitiloveit" has been a slow-burn favorite of mine — it deserves way more attention than it's gotten so far.
The ones I'm bracing to see snubbed
I'll be honest — I don't think Drake or Cardi B are locks this year even though both have loyal fanbases, and I have a feeling BTS's "Swim" might not get the push it deserves outside of Korea. Justin Bieber is the wildcard here: the "Bieberchella" conversation kept him relevant all year, but that kind of buzz doesn't always convert into actual nominations. This is genuinely just my gut feeling, though — I'd love to be wrong about any of these.
Why this year feels bigger than usual
A few things are stacking up to make the 2026 VMAs unusually interesting. The move back to LA after nearly a decade in New York and New Jersey already has people talking. There's also a lot of overlap between this year's VMA buzz and the recent Grammy nominations — Kendrick Lamar, Bad Bunny, SZA, and Doechii all picked up serious Grammy love this cycle, which tends to carry momentum into other award shows. And the HUNTR/X phenomenon is a genuinely rare case of an animated film's soundtrack breaking into the mainstream music conversation the way "Golden" has.
How I turned my list into an actual graphic
Once I had my tiers sorted in my head, I got tired of just typing it all out, so I dragged everything into a ready-made VMA-style ranking template to actually see it laid out. It's a simple drag-and-drop tier list template — I just renamed the rows to match my S/A/B tiers, dropped in the artist names, and exported it as an image to share. If you want to make your own version instead of arguing about it in the comments, this template is basically set up for exactly this kind of list.
FAQ
When will the official 2026 VMA nominations be announced?
MTV typically announces the full nominations list in early August, roughly a month ahead of the September ceremony, so the official list should land any day now if it hasn't already.
Do you need an account to use the tier list template?
No sign-up step involved — you can open the template and start dragging entries around straight away.
Can you change the tier labels and colors on the template?
Yes, the tier names, colors, and order are all editable, so you're not locked into a default S/A/B/C setup if you want to label your tiers differently.
Okay, now it's your turn
That's my list — locks, hopefuls, and the snubs I'm bracing for. Who do you think actually makes the cut this year, and who am I sleeping on? Drop your own predictions in the comments, I'm genuinely curious how different everyone's lists end up looking once the real nominations drop.