VMA Nominations 2026: Madonna, Taylor Swift & Who Wins
VMA nominations 2026 are here: Madonna leads with 11 nods, Taylor Swift close behind with 9. Here's my S-to-D ranking of who actually wins.
Amelia 8.5 min read
When the VMA Nominations 2026 List Dropped, My Group Chat Did Not Recover
Madonna's Comeback vs. Taylor's Consistency
Let's talk about the headline first, because it's genuinely one of the more interesting VMA storylines in a while. Madonna's 11 nominations mark the first time she's led the pack since 1998, and a big chunk of that comes from her 14-minute "Confessions II — The Film," which is up for Video of the Year alongside her collaboration with Sabrina Carpenter, "Bring Your Love," in Song of the Year. Meanwhile "The Fate of Ophelia" earned Taylor Swift nods for Video of the Year, Best Pop, and a string of creative categories, and her "Opalite" video also picked up a solo Best Direction nomination.
Here's the stat that actually has me invested: if Madonna sweeps all 11 of her nominations, she'd tie Beyoncé and Taylor Swift for the all-time record of 30 competitive VMA wins. And on the flip side, since Taylor is currently tied with Beyoncé at 30 wins apiece, a single win this year would make her the sole most-awarded artist in VMA history</cite> — no tie, just her name on top. It's rare to see two pop veterans this dominant in the same year, with both of them chasing the exact same record from opposite directions. Ariana Grande and Sabrina Carpenter are right behind them with seven nominations apiece, and honestly that four-way race for Artist of the Year feels like the most competitive it's been in years.
My "Who Actually Wins" Tier List for VMA Nominations 2026
This isn't a ranking of my favorite videos — it's my best guess at who's walking out of the Peacock Theater with a Moon Person, based on nomination spread, narrative momentum, and how VMA voting has historically shaken out.
S-Tier (my picks to actually win): Madonna, Taylor Swift, Sabrina Carpenter — here's why. Madonna is the story of the night, and voters love a comeback narrative, especially one with a record-tying number attached to it. Taylor is my other top pick because "The Fate of Ophelia" is the rare Video of the Year contender that's also racking up nods in nearly every technical category, and a fanbase this large tends to show up hard for fan-voted categories. Sabrina Carpenter rounds out my top tier less because of raw nomination count and more because she's got the momentum of back-to-back strong VMA years behind her.
A-Tier (strong contenders, tougher odds): Ariana Grande, Bruno Mars, LISA. Grande's "hate that i made you love me" is a real Video of the Year threat, but I think it's competing against two once-in-a-career narratives at the top of the category. Bruno Mars quietly racking up nominations every year without much discourse makes him a sneaky Best Collaboration pick. LISA's "Dream" is one of the prettiest videos in the whole nominee pool this year, and even if I don't think it takes the top prize — it deserves more conversation than it's getting.
B-Tier (could pull an upset, but unlikely): PinkPantheress & Zara Larsson, Shakira, Tate McRae. All three are doing genuinely good work, but they're up against a year that's stacked at the top. "Stateside" is a fun collab, and I like its odds specifically in Best Dance, given the category's first return in seven years.
C/D-Tier (nominated, but I'd be surprised): This is less "these are bad" and more "the math isn't in their favor this year." A handful of strong videos got squeezed into single-nomination slots, which historically makes it hard to convert into an actual win once fan-vote totals get split across bigger campaigns.
Since We're Already Deep in Taylor's Catalog...
Taylor chasing that 30-win record has had me revisiting her whole catalog this week, so I couldn't help myself — here's a purely-for-fun fan ranking of her songs.
S-Tier: "The Fate of Ophelia," "cardigan," "All Too Well (10 Minute Version)." These are the songs I'd defend in literally any argument — the kind of writing that made me a fan in the first place.
A-Tier: "Cruel Summer," "Style," "Anti-Hero," "Fortnight (feat. Post Malone)." Massive, era-defining hits. I just think the S-tier songs edge them out on lyrics alone, which is a very unfair bar to hold anything to.
B-Tier: "Blank Space," "Shake It Off," "Lover," "august," "Love Story (Taylor's Version)." Still great, still in heavy rotation, just a notch below emotionally for me.
C-Tier: "You Belong With Me (Taylor's Version)," "Don't Blame Me," "I Knew You Were Trouble.," "Opalite." Good songs, just not the ones I reach for first.
D-Tier: "I Don't Wanna Live Forever," "Elizabeth Taylor," "Wi$h Li$t," "Father Figure." Not bad songs at all — just the bottom of a very stacked catalog. "D-tier Taylor" still beats most artists' entire discography.
A Few Things Fans Are Talking About
One thing worth flagging: <cite index="10-1">this year's crop of first-time nominees includes GENER8ION, Yung Lean, CORTIS, and Stella Lefty</cite>, which is a pretty clear sign MTV is trying to widen the lens beyond the usual pop A-list. If you're into K-pop or the internet-native side of music, that's the category to watch. The other detail that jumped out at me: <cite index="10-1">Best Dance is back on the ballot for the first time in seven years</cite>, which feels overdue given how much choreography has driven video culture lately. And logistically, <cite index="16-1">the ceremony is moving to the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles, the first time it's been held there in nine years</cite> — should make for a different energy than the last few New York shows.
Okay, I Made a Tier Graphic Too
After I sorted my picks I got a little carried away and turned the whole thing into an actual tier graphic instead of just a text list — used a drag-and-drop tier list tool I found online since I'm too lazy to open Photoshop for something like this. There's a music awards template that already has most of the 2026 nominees loaded in, so I just dropped my own S-to-D calls in and exported it, and there was a separate Taylor Swift songs template already sitting there too, which is honestly why the song tangent above happened at all. If you want to make your own version and argue with mine, the same site works fine for that too — took me maybe ten minutes total.
So, Where Do You Land?
That's my honest ranking, biases and all. Madonna's comeback year has me genuinely excited to see if she can close it out with a win, but I know plenty of people will die on the Taylor hill instead. Where would you put your favorites — same tiers as me, or am I completely off base? Drop your own S-tier picks in the comments, I want to see how many people fight me on the LISA placement.
FAQ
Q1: Is Madonna's 11 VMA nominations a record for her? A1: Yes — it's a personal best, marking the first time Madonna has led VMA nominations since 1998, when she also had nine nods for "Ray of Light." Her 2026 haul of 11 nominations tops both of her previous leading years.
Q2: How many VMAs has Taylor Swift won overall? A2:Taylor Swift is currently tied with Beyoncé for the most career VMA wins in history, with 30 each, even though she trails Madonna in nominations this year.
Q3: When and where are the 2026 VMAs? A3: The 2026 VMAs will air live from the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles, broadcast Sunday, September 27, at 7:30 p.m. Eastern / 4:30 p.m. Pacific on CBS, with MTV and Paramount+ simulcasting.
Q4: Could Madonna or Taylor Swift set a record this year? A4: Yes, on both sides. If Madonna sweeps all 11 of her nominations, she'd tie Beyoncé and Taylor Swift's all-time record of 30 competitive VMA wins. If Taylor Swift wins even one award, she'd break her current tie with Beyoncé and become the sole most-awarded artist in VMA history.
Q5: Why is the Best Dance category a big deal this year? A5: Best Dance is returning to the VMAs for the first time in seven years, so this is the first real chance in a while for choreography-driven videos to get their own spotlight instead of competing buried in other categories.
Q6: Is the tier list tool you used free? A6: The one I linked (TierMakerPro) let me build and export the graphic without any hassle — I didn't have to make an account to mess around with it, which is honestly why I bothered in the first place.